This first module of the Training Package on Seasonal Climate Forecast aims to introduce the challenge and the scope of forecasting seasonal variability in the Mediterranean region.
The Mediterranean region is located in a transitional zone where mid-latitude and tropical climate variability are both important and compete. Nowadays, about 400 million people live in the countries around the Mediterranean Sea. This densely populated area has large economic, cultural and demographic contrasts. Climate variability has a great impact on Mediterranean economy, ecosystems and human welfare.
Climatic variability and related risks affect the water availability needed by different sectors, while the water demand is dramatically rising. Agriculture is just one of the many sectors demanding an improvement in water management, being in competition with other economic activities such as energy, tourism, industry which obtain a large economic benefit determined by the water availability.
Since late 90’s seasonal forecasts experienced a growing role, despite the large uncertainties still present especially in mid-latitudes. Recent advances in seasonal to interannual hydroclimatic predictions provide an opportunity for developing a proactive approach towards water management. The knowledge of precipitation and temperature anomalies available a few months in advance can be certainly useful for technical services and organisations in order to better manage water resources in agriculture and other strategic sectors. At the same time, methods and scientific results are still underexploited and not easily accessible and comprehensible for potential users.
This module will allow students:
- Understanding Climate Forecast and the difference between weather and climate forecasts;
- Understanding the scientific basis of seasonal forecasting;
- Having an overview of best practices in seasonal forecasting at different time scales;
- Understanding the strategic value of seasonal forecasting and related potential benefits for Mediterranean agriculture;
- Knowing World Meteorological Organization strategy supporting regional seasonal forecasting;
- Knowing existing Climate Outlook Forums in the region, their mechanisms and interaction.
Understanding Climate Forecast
Forecasting seasonal variability in the Med