3.1 Principles of Forecast Verification

 

Riccardo Benedetti – Consorzio LAMMA (Regione Toscana-CNR)

 

 

OUTLINE

BASIC FEATURES AND DESIDERATA

  • Scientific Prediction
  • Probabilistic Forecasts
  • Basic Desiderata for scoring

LOGARITHMIC SCORE

  • Logarithmic score uniqueness
  • The “fair score” and its properties
  • Logarithmic and Brier score comparison

EXAMPLES OF APPLICATIONS

  • Climatological skill score
  • Example of application
  • Forecasts vs observations

 

M3_3.1_Principles of Forecast Verification
3.1 Principles of Forecast Verification

Riccardo Benedetti – Consorzio LAMMA (Regione Toscana-CNR)

 
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License


 

REadings
3.1 Forecast Verification – Basic principles

Daniele Mastrangelo Institute of Atmospheric Science and Climate – ISAC National Research Council – CNR Bologna, Italy

 

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

 

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